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speeches, fund-raisers, they're all over. now comes down to u.s. voters. more than 120 million are expected to show up at the polls. >> and european investors are holding off on big moves. equities just edging higher led by technology stocks. >> and adecco sees hiring picking up in america. >>> we're finally here, election day in the united states. before that, we have the latest pmis out of the eurozone. economy declined steepening going into the fourth quarter. the final services pmi lower than the flash. it was 46.2 was the flash. lowest since july 2009. that means the composite final pmi 45.7. the flash 45.8. french services pmi weakened, also. 46.2. so both those major parts of the eurozone economy -- >> and remember, this is a leading indicator. if you see europe doing any better next year, you have to start seeing at least this indicator bottoming. >> dollar just dipped down to its lowest point of the session on the back of that. and of course we've got in spain they're talking about the groth being much weaker than the government's forecast. >> even though their service might have b
the handover of power in china will impact relations in the u.s. >> we're in london to talk about shipping trends. >>> plus what will obama do about the looming fiscal cliff? we'll have plenty of analysis from commentators. >> and we'll hear first from the cfo of aliance. but first day two data suggested growth is picking up and inflation is moderating meaning beijing may have more scope to ease if necessary. ppi industrial output and retail sales all came in better than forecast. eunice joins us from beijing. i'd hate to suggest this is quite good timing for this data. very convenient. >> what are you suggesting? a lot of people are saying that the numbers are showing the economy is bottoming out and a lot of people do use the numbers as a guideline at least. they're saying the investment figures were encouraging. looking relatively strong. the government hasn't put up of much money in the infrastructure projects, so that's part of the equation here. other part is retail and consumption side actually look pretty good. numbers came in at 14.5% growth and that beat expectations. a lot of th
, so whether the u.s. down there or italy and spain here in the periphery, 4.7%, 6%, remarkable there, level for spain even today as the country's banks are being more fully examined in light of the national examination plans. the dollar/yen pulling back about half a percent to 8167. let's get to deirdre bolton from singapore. hi, deirdre. >> hi, kelly, how are you? and it's morris, by the way. but i'm flattered that you call me bolton. in china and hong kong, it was all about, what else, the fiscal cliff. those comments from the senate majority leader harry reid overnight really sparked some jitters in this session today, so we have red across the board. the shanghai composite, it is well and truly below that 2011 level, shedding another .9 of a percent. the hang seng was feeling some of that pressure from chinese stocks and shedding .6 of a percent. it was the mainland banks that were the culprit. they didn't fare as badly if the mainland. some capital requirement rules are going to be implemented that are raising concerns about loans and the ability of these major banks to give out
in the u.s. we'll head out to new york city later in the show for a preview of what to expect on wall street today. and more than 2,000 hand picked chinese delegates gathered at the great hall of the people to kick off the communist party week long transition. beijing will only officially reveal the next generation leaders thursday. hu jintao promised political and economic reform, but he stressed china won't abandon one party rule and will stick to the socialist path. eunice is live for us. this is his big final speech, so reading in sort of between the lines almost is very telling. it's the legacy he's trying to cath. and what less gassy is that? >> many here believe what he is saying is significant in that it is his final farewell. he really was just reading through the work report to talks about the achievements, the economic and political achievements that the party has had. and also to outline the future challenges. one of the first challenges you had already addressed is the issue of corruption. he said the government needed to do more to root it out. >> eunice, we're having tr
soared on cyber monday. and all bets are off. prediction market entrade says it can no longer accept u.s. customers as market regulators say its trades aren't legal. shanghai composite closed below 2,000 for the first time in three years. it comes at a time when plenty have been talking up chinese growth prospects for next year. so we'll get into that more later. but 1991 is the closing level. this the main one to watch across asia. the nikkei did manage to continue it rally adding about 0.4% as the yen weakens on comments this morning. forex, the dollar-yen one to watch, 82.19 is the level there. the aussie dollar doing a little bit abouter despite that weak number on the shanghai composite. sterling is flat. we'll get into that more later. and euro-dollar just barely higher today, we did see it rallying over the 1.30 mark last night. as we look at crude rallying adding a third of a percent. brent about a quarter of a percent. copper, we're adding 0.2%. 354 bucks on that contract. the real foe you can as we continue to examine whether china's economy is fundamentally hanging in there, c
rolls to re-election and a second term, defeating mitt romney despite a weak u.s. economy and persistently high unemployment. >> investors cheer obama's re-election. equities trading high led by autos and health care stocks. >> democrats keep their hold of the senate and republicans keep their control of the house. >> there will be a tough challenge facing the looming fiscal cliff. >>> a very good morning to you. it's been a long night, but we have a result. >> yes, we do. let's get right it to. president barack obama capturing a second term in the white house despite the struggling u.s. economy. he did manage to win many of the same states he took in 2008 and nearly all the critical swing states, including ohio, virginia, and colorado. speaking to supporters in chicago just a few hours ago, the president congratulated his republican challenger on the spirited race and said there's plenty of work ahead to fix the country's fiscal problems. >> i believe we can seize this future together, because we are not as divided as our politics suggest. we're not as cynical as the pund
on december 7th. they priced the range at the moment of their indicative range. it will be a 3.1 u.s. billion dollar ipo and that would be hong kong's largest in about two years. looking at some of the other markets, the kospi finished with somes losses down 0.1%. asx finishing up 0.6%. let's get over to the november performances because it was a pretty good showing for the month. nikkei of course the outperformer. kelly mentioned the yen. it has been weakening against the u.s. dollar and that has been providing a lot of support. also directly related to politics in japan. this has been in focus over the last month or so. opposition leader expected to be the next prime minister when the country votes. so he has been talking about a lot of aggressive monetary easing and talking about an inflation target of about 2%. so stocks have really been on a roll. the kospi finishing up with just about 1.1% gain in november. we have the asx finishing just slightly lower about a quarter of a percent. and the hang seng continues to win finishing i believe a third month of gains up 1.8% in the month of nove
.1 million barrels a day. impact of hurricane sandy in the u.s., reduced, as well. crude oil supply dipped to a nine month low. so the demand being cut, patrick armstrong is where us, managing partner at investment managers. but that's clearly because of global weakness -- well, economic weakness in europe and hurricane impact. >> definitely. year over year, oil demand is up. we've had very weak economy in europe. not much growth in the united states. but i think that's the trend we'll be playing out for the next few years. >> oil 110 at the moment. is that a fair price? >> there's premium built in because of geopolitical risks. i think premium is probably justifiable. you look at wti at $23 discount to where breptd is. that's not sustainable in the long time, but given inventory levels, that will stay. >> do you keep your trade on oil? >> we have neutral position, but we're short the front month. respe respect. we make money by rolling the contracts the other way around. we're long oil in the 12 months forward rolling in to the 13th month and we end up with little more oil with that strat
the stage for a possible comeback. >>> and president obama meets with top u.s. lawmakers to begin budget talks as the fiscal cliff looms. both sides are digging in their heels on on tax hikes and spending hikes. against all of the political changes we're seeing today, first i want to show you the market action. stoxx 600 is sitting roughly flat, but we've seen interesting trading session where the nikkei really surging to the up side again today. more on that in a bit. take a look at what's happening across europe because after a couple of uglier days in the market, we're seeing something of a comeback now led by technology, retail stocks are also in the green, food and beverages, autos among the sectors dragging on the in-dek. we can take a closer look at the bourses. ibex is down. ftse 100 sam thing, so we'll keep an eye on all these levels as the show progresses this morning. the bond space is where we've been focusing our attention with spain and greece on. spain today seeing prices rise, yields coming down to 5.78%. italy seeing a bit of a rally, too. selloff for britain and bund oi
the central bank says it has to do more to show it's serious about stimulating growth. and in the u.s., consumers filled up their shopping carts. early estimates show sales up 13% over the lost holiday weekend. >>> welcome to the start of a fresh trading week. kelly will be back tomorrow. catalonia voters have handed the majority to the separatists, but not necessarily the ones you thought. we'll assess the impact. and investors worry among protests over the egyptian president's attempt to increase his power base. and how much would it cost you to buy all items in the song 12 days of christmas? pnc wealth management will tell us why it's a lot more than you might think. plus shoppers hitting the net today, the year's biggest day for online purchases. we'll asset how much cash shoppers have left over after black friday's billion dollar be in an sa. bonanza. we have some confident data out of italy. november consumer confidence 84.8. that is a record low. we've had protests, as well. they're gathering in brussels to try to hammer out a deal on the greek deficit. prime minister says they
the changes could mean. >>> welcome back. take a look at the u.s. equity futures. dow and s&p coming off their worst week since july 4th. you can see they are indicated higher, but maybe not the bounce you might have expected. the dow up 23. >> squawk sports new, texans beating the bears 13-6. foster finished with 102 yards rush and touchdown catch and texans intercepted cutler twice before knocking him out with a concussion. >> no comment about the jets? >> they lost. >> andrew, here's the deal. >> did you see rex ryan -- >> the giants won the super bowl last year. a lot of people have told him he's fat and he should shut up. he's not fat anymore. she just shut up. but sanchez, you brush up against him and the ball goes flying out. >> they've been going back and forth. >> when the giants are the defending the super bowl champions and they got their butts kicked by the bengals and the other game unbelievable is johnny football. texas a and m and alabama, that was unbelievable. alabama number one. texas a and m just joined the sec. and this guy johnny football, you just can't believe the
such a thing as a fiscal cliff like you have in the u.s. the old budget simply takes over up a new budget has been agreed on. so there is no financing disaster in the middle of it. the curious crux to this is if this old budget takes over because of the in-build qui sooif inflation factor in there, it's actually than the new budget they're debating right now, so all the countries pushing for the cut and even putting the threat on the veto on the table, they will actually chief the opposite. we'll keep on spending more even then with a sort of slide budget increase that the eu commission put on the table. and as to where the negotiations stand, i think at the moment the budget talks, pardon to be cynical, but political posturing on the various side than the actual effects in there. because if you look at the mound that the various countries put up into the budget, i think like 9 billion and that is already one of the biggest, we just save banks and sovereigns for hundreds of billions of bailout funds. so in terms of the actual money, this is absolute small cheese. >> absolutely is. silvia, for
we have been hoping for for four decades now will arrive and the u.s. will serve up more oil than saudi arabia in the year 2020. that according to a new report by people who actually do know the oil business very well. >>> and sex and the ceo. and the collateral damage. how widespread is sex at work? we really want the answer to that question? >>> what should the consequences be. >>> and no hockey. forget about that. no problem. look what the world of auto racing brought us over the weekend. a brawl! another black eye for a sport that corporate america was counting on? no fighting here at cnbc. sue's with me here again. nice to have you here, sue. >> it is great to be here, ty. those "fast money" guys got me all riled up over there. they're having a good time. >>> we're going to take a look at the markets right now. dow jones industrial average has turned into positive territory, not by too much, but hey if you're a bull, we'll take it. the s&p is up two. the nasdaq up almost eight on the trading session. >>> we here at cnbc, as you do, follow the energy sector very closely on "po
saudi arabia? could an abundance of shale oil in the u.s. actually bring about energy independence by the year 2020? we drill for the truth straight ahead. and how rich is rich? the president wants higher taxes for americans earning more than $250,000 a year. is that fair? or should that number actually be $1 million? and could this be the key to resolving the looming fiscal cliff? that and a lot more is still to come on the "closing bell." >>> if a budget is not agreed upon to avoid the fiscal cliff, the average middle class family will pay $2,000 more in taxes. >> that's right. crunch time is upon us. the markets and economy will be held hostage until lawmakers do reach a deal on the fiscal cliff, presumably between now and the end of the year. >> eamon javers is breaking down the plan. over to you. >> just before the break, you and bill were debating whether or not it's too early to start getting sweaty palms about in fiscal cliff problem in washington. as a guy covering capitol hill for almost 20 years, i can tell you it's never too early to panic about what washington might do
timetable. if they don't see that it would be inconsistent with maintaining a aaa rating. the u.s. is on negative outlook. s&p already downgraded. >> i think that we all kind of remember what happened -- i think that the big worry on the left side would be i think listen, nothing happened. interest rates went down again. that's a scare tactic. i'll use a scare tactic. $600 billion in new taxes january 1. that's reality. >> unemployment going back to 9.1 if this happens. that's a number that gets your attention. the "times" does a nice piece about fix the debt group. groups of very large companies trying to weigh in on their own side with ads. i don't know if we have them right now. nike with a mock nike ad that says just fix it. mcdonald's saying i'm fixing it. >> home depot. we can fix it. >> that group raised a lot of money over the last year or so. $30 million, $40 million, more than you might have anticipated to mount this public campaign. >> dave is doing a lot of great things. ceo of honeywell. wants to put aside -- i don't know if he's a democrat or republican. i know he's
thought to the findings of the congressional committee on the culpability of jon corzine, the former u.s. senator with respect to the mf global collapse. >> i think it is no surprise that corzine gets all the blame there from republicans. they want to embarrass a guy who's got democratic connections. he was to blame. he made these big bets. the more interesting thing to me is the extent to which it shows that the s.e.c. and the cftc were completely at odds with one another, not in sync, and makes the argument strongly for merging those two. it does make the case more strongly for merging those two agencies. >> thank you very much, ben. we'll talk more about that congressional report in our next half-hour. simon? >>> tyler, in 53 minutes, a major news conference begins in which we're expecting an announcement that bp, british petroleum, is agreeing flou to pay the u.s. government a record fine for the disastrous oil spill in the gulf of mexico. what was it? two years ago. bertha coombs has details. bertha. >> that's right, simon. they will admit guilt and pay the largest fine ever by a u.
. u.s. equity futures should be interesting to look at temperature basically on hold. not sure what to do after yesterday. we'll talk more about the economy in a minute with david rosenburg. it was pretty clear yesterday that depending on how you wanted to spin it, could you say how do you do for another four years. i don't remember any euro news in the last six months no matter how bad it was, we didn't get it free handle. so there's more to it than just europe. >> it was the fiscal cliff, but also the financials got hit so hard. if it had been romney, the cliff would be less of a deal because they would stepped all of them. so now we know and we lettered it first hand yesterday. boehner said we're open to tax increase, but part of a bigger plan that involves spending cuts. dove did a bungee -- >> worst thing i ever did. >> but it goes down and then right back up. >> the worst part is you feel like you're connected on something, but don't. it's a free fall until the very he said and then he start to feel like i'm connected to something and it throws being back into the air. >> my q
that sucked up the oxygen. hamas is a group that's recognized as a terrorist organization by the u.s. government, the israeli government and the european union, has increased shelling in areas of israel over recent weeks. they now have shelled tel aviv and 180 missiles went into southern israel. so israel for its own self-defense, its right of self-defense is organizing, rallying more reserve troops, getting ready for more permanent action. it can and should do what's necessary to protect its citizens, which means inflicting damage on hamas. >> heavy damage, deep damage. go as long as it takes. but john, given what you and ambassador williamson just said, where is the white house on this? the best we can find is not a public statement. the best we can find came out of a white house statement. i'll quote, israel has the right to self-defense in light of the rocket attacks. but that's not the president really standing up for israel. this was some white house spokesman echoed by the state department, john. that ain't the kind of support that i'm looking for. >> my information, very fres
economists and business leaders say could send the u.s. economy back into recession. here we have an interesting divide between wall street and washington. wall street seems to believe and you can take a look at the numbers on how the market has acted over the past year. wall street seems to believe that we'll avert this cliff. washington seems to be willing to drive over the cliff. >> i think there's -- i don't want to pick on the tea party per se. you can say if obama would suddenly give in on taxes. what i worry about is there are people who are ideological in the country and more focused on other issues than taxation and money. those people i think are very much out of sync with other people as we discovered last night from the election. they could care less about the fiscal cliff. i think some people want to go over the cliff. >> howard dean last night, sam on "squawk" a couple weeks ago saying maybe it's the best medicine for us is to drive over this thing, go into a recession, provide some bed for growth in the second half of the year. it's a gamble. >> $5 trillion in cuts.
economics. back here in the u.s., reports from walmart and target. at 8:30, we get weekly jobless claims. october consumer price index. and the november empire state survey. in corporate news, bp expected to pay a record u.s. criminal penalty and plead guilty to criminal misconduct in the 2010 deepwater horizon disaster, a plea deal reached with the department of justice reportedly may be announced as soon as today. reuters says bp will plead guilty in exchange for a waiver of future prosecution on the charges. bp says it is in discussions, but no final agreement has been reached yet. >> fun to have you here today. we do hope mr. kernen get better very soon. he's not normally sick. >> he never calls out sick. so he must be really sick. >> i think there's a flu going around. >> convenient for all of us. i took chips out of his bag yesterday and now i'm -- >> who is the guy sitting in his seat? >> can we get some lie sole over here? >> let's get back to the topic dominating the conversation from wall street to washington right now. of course it is the looming fiscal cliff. we have made it
territory. >> the head of mcdonald's u.s. business is out and jeff stratton will assume that business starting january 1. capped off last month with the first decline in monthly sales in about nine years. we'll begin with a teale of two retailers. walmart, revenues coming in short of forecast. -- as for target, the company posted third quarter earnings well above estimates, says it's poised for a strong fourth quarter, but walmart has some issues here, jim. they're talking countries including but not limited to brazil, china and some others too. >> yeah, i was thinking it bick, not brick. russia has been left out of the equation, foreign corrupt investigation, not a great number here at all. the stock had become a very big institutional favorite. if you recall during the mexican investigation, when "new york times" piece it, the stock was trading between 57 and 58. they were then overridden by a couple of really good, solid quarters. this was not the quarter that anyone was looking for. >> except for those who sold the stock over the last couple of weeks. i mean that stock has started
the course of the year. thankfully we've been very u.s.-centric in our investments over the course of 2011-2012. what we're preparing for now is looking again at the foreign markets in 2013. >> foreign markets meaning you want to be allocating money outside of the u.s. because of these issues in the u.s.? >> well, taking a look at some of the large global players here in the u.s. and outside, because as tax rates go up here in the united states, what we're about to see is probably the laugher curve in reverse. tax rates going up, revenues declining, creating a headwind for gdp. we're look at companies in the world for looking for global growth opportunity outside our borders. >> mark, let me get your standpoint on this. all year all we've been hearing about are dividend payers. why? because the yield -- there's no yield anywhere with rates where they are. everyone is searching for yield. they've found it in some companies that actually pay dividend, etf that pay dividend. there's a lot of those that have done so well. is this the time to avoid or sell those companies now or not? >> well, i
than the rest of the world. the u.s. is starting to show good trends. in an area that capital spending might be flat or plus 2%, enterprise is starting to show some signs of coming back outside of europe. commercial marketplace, which is what i watch the most, is also doing okay. so i would assume government's going to continue to be tough, especially the u.s. federal government. public sector around the world, okay. in the u.s., not counting federal. good in asia-pacific. still challenging in europe. >> we're looking at challenges in the u.s., obviously. i want to get your take on what's going on with with taxes and what your expectations are. first off, you've got 87% of total cash held overseas. is that right? >> that is probably pretty accurate. probably in excess of $40 billion. >> what are the pans to repay trait? is it worth taking a tax hit to invest domestically, or it's too expensi expensive, so you leave that money overseas until you see a change in tax code? >> we're at a cross roads. we clearly want to put this money to use in a way that benefits our shareholders. if we be
at much lower levels. jeff cox, i mentioned the $750 billion in loss. that's just the u.s. when you add in global markets, according to rich peterson at capital s&p, it's $1 trillion that's been taken out of market value just since the election. >> it's crazy. if you remember several months aer ago, i was on and we talked about technical levels in the market. i said 1350 is an important upside. we cleared that. now we're coming back down again. we're around 1353. if that doesn't hold as support rather than resistance, the next place between here and there, 1278 it the june lows. 1158 we were at last year. there's basically nothing between. where does that leave investors? the fed minutes came out yesterday with an indication there's still an appetite for easing. i think we're paving the way for a possible qe-4, especially pending what happens with the cliff. i think if we get this can kick thing, it's only going to add to uncertainty. a lot of folks are looking for alternatives, not stocks, high yield. they want something different. >> yeah, because they're afraid of equities. >> if you
because the underlying fundamentals in the u.s. economy are clearly improving, and you also have a stabilization or soft landing happening in china at the same time. >> david kelly, what do you want to be doing here? what's your strategy for the fiscal cliff? do you think we go over it, and what do you want to do? >> for a long-term investor, you don't try and play this one. i agree with stephanie about the market probably going higher once they get a resolution. they will get a resolution. it's possible it could go into early january. i still think they're more likely to get a resolution done before the end of the year. either way, they'll get a resolution done. when that happens, then we'll resort to looking at the u.s. economy, which is strengthening a bit here. also, the extreme and relative valuations between high-quality fixed income and equities will push money towards equities. i would not run for cover here because of the volatility. i think you just have to, you know, hold your ground through this and hope that the market moves higher next year. >> bob, this activity at
resigning. in a private hearing, he told lawmakers that he believed all along that the attack on the u.s. consulate in benghazi, libya was a terrorist strike despite how the white house initially portrayed it. of the scandal that led him to resign, petraeus expressed his regret about the circumstances of his departure but said nothing more. simon? >>> two major breaking stories right now impacting the oil market. there's been an explosion on an oil rig in the gulf of mexico off the coast of venice, louisiana. a company called black elk energy operates that rig. reports are that a worker may have cut a line with a settling torch. four people have been rushed to the hospital, two are reportedly still missing. so far we have no reports of oil actually leaking into the gulf. >>> meanwhile, also breaking right now, the u.n. nuclear agency says iran is about to double output of higher enriched uranium. now that is a material that can easily be turned, we're told, into a nuclear warhead. sharon epperson is following the oil impact on both of those breaking stories. sharon, over to you. >> brent
's next. >>> if congress drifts u.s. economy off the fiscal cliff, the department of education's 2013 budget will be cut by over $4 billion with $256 million cut from the federal student aid program. and his new boss told him two things -- cook what you love, and save your money. joe doesn't know it yet, but he'll work his way up from busser to waiter to chef before opening a restaurant specializing in fish and game from the great northwest. he'll start investing early, he'll find some good people to help guide him, and he'll set money aside from his first day of work to his last, which isn't rocket science. it's just common sense. from td ameritrade. it's just common sense. when you take a closer look... ...at the best schools in the world... ...you see they all have something very interesting in common. they have teachers... ...with a deeper knowledge of their subjects. as a result, their students achieve at a higher level. let's develop more stars in education. let's invest in our teachers... ...so they can inspire our students. let's solve this. >>> welcome back. i'm bertha coombs
there again? >> well, again, the u.s. stimulated the last crisis with our subprime crisis. the world was awash in debt. demographic trends were set to slow. now we have the same thing replaying with europe set to be the trigger this time with their sovereign debt crisis. we have even greater debt now in countries around the world. demographics is getting ready to slow more in the next few years. i think we're prime for a crisis. this time it's going to be europe that triggers it, not our fiscal cliff, not our fed. if we could take the whole world down, europe can take the whole world down. think of it this way. we've had two bubbles and we're in a third one. each bubble has taken us a little higher. each crash has taken us a little lower. 6,000 is simply the bottom trend line through those bottoms, including the 6440 in early 2009. it's a slight new low. it's not anything that should be unexpected given the trend. >> well, it's still, you know, half of where we are right now. it's only a two-year period. ron, take the other side of that. what do you think? >> i think it's a pretty easy other s
is that the u.s. bankruptcy judge said that the parties have agreed to a medation in the prevention of shutting down hostess. that will likely be monitored by the same judge tomorrow morning at 11 a.m. this is an attempt to avoid a shutdown, even though in today's hearing the hostess brand lawyer said it would be, quote, very hard to recover from this damage even if there were to be an agreement in the near term. still unclear what this actually means for hostess's ability to operate is a going certain but still a positive move and we'll stay tuned to what actually happens tomorrow. >> he's put off the table for now chapter 7 or chapter 11, is that my understanding? he's going to get them to do a deal even though bakers have rejected? >> that's right. an alternative to liquidation for today. he's giving them till tomorrow to say, if quu agree on some terms in the private, the brain trust will be in a room trying to hammer out a deal. if not, more options will be on the table. at least for the next 24 hours it looks like liquidation is off the table. but just for this very short term. also the q
down. we stress doing it in local currency. the other areas are u.s. high yield, which i still think is valuable. we do think spreads will contract and emerging market equities as well. >> jordan, what about you? how are you preparing for what could be an eventuality where we go over the cliff and we've got to deal with higher taxes and a slower economy? a lot of people expecting recession in 2013, if, in fact, this occurs. >> think about what works well in a slow-growth economy. consumer products companies do well. high dividend payers. you'll see 100 companies that have already declared dividends this month. those are the strongest companies in the market. those are the ones that can afford to buy back shares or invest in high r.o.e. projects next year. i wouldn't avoid them just thinking dividend taxes are going up. they're the strongest in the market. you also have energy infrastructure, which is paying about 6%. most of it is a return of principle. these are companies with some of the lowest cost of capital ever. high return projects, long-term contracts. the government is in su
ratings agencies going do, is there another downgrade of u.s. debt looming here and what would that do to financial markets. i want to sort of tell you a little bit about why you might be able to stop worrying and start to love these ratings agencies. the reason is the timeline of any downgrade that might come down the pike. starting with moody's. they're saying their rating on u.s. debt is likely to be maintained until the outlook of negotiations is clear. now fitch, they're likely to review their rating of u.s. debt in late 2013. late 2013. standard & poors poor's is saying it is a 1 in 3 chance of a downgrade over the coming two years. what do the ratings agencies want to see in order to avoid those kinds of downgrades? what they're saying is laid out specifically in their reports. moody's saying they want to see specific policies that produce a stabilization. they want a downward federal debt to gdp trend. fitch says they want an agreement on med yum term deficit reduction in 2013. standard and poor's is saying a medium term fiscal plan toward reducing general government debt. if y
to 60 minutes on cnbc. i'm leslie stahl. by most accounts, the financial crash of 2008 pushed the u.s. economy to the brink of collapse. in its aftermath, some of the country's biggest banks received very big bailouts while large numbers of small local banks failed. this edition features a unique inside look at the seizure of a failed bank and a rare interview with one of the men at the center of the 2008 economic crisis and the recovery plan that has followed, the chairman of the board of governors of the federal reserve system, ben bernanke. plus, morley safer asks, "can america afford the lincoln penny?" well, we begin with bernanke. after the crash of '08, bernanke invoked emergency powers, and with unprecedented aggressiveness, he's thrown more than $1 trillion at the crisis. the words of any fed chairman cause fortunes to rise and fall, and so by tradition, chairmen of the fed do not do interviews. that is, until march of 2009 when ben bernanke sat down with scott pelley. >> mr. chairman, i'm gonna start with a question that everyone wants me to ask. when does this end? >> it de
the same period. we associate obama with ruthlessness toward the banks. yet wells fargo, jp morgan, and u.s. bank corp are pretty much unchanged. and the credit card bank capital one thought to be the bane of the credit card bashing obama, actually up 8%. bank of america has collapsed from $47 to $9. a lot of them $57 to $17. mastercard 184 to 465. you have to draw a conclusion other than goldman and morgan have the wrong business models for the moment. and the big domestic banks have the right ones, except the poorly run, poorly executing bank of america, which can't benefit from the model because it's been so horribly hobbled by previous management's mistakes. >> the house of pain. >> that said, will goldman and morgan stanley do better under romney? is dodd/frank the liaison? or depending on trading and mergers and acquisitions as the peddling of big acquisitions is a thing of the past maybe they can come back. i still can't pin the tail on obama. too much disparity within the sector. obama care was supposed to take the profit margin out of the drug stocks, right? merck and pfizer are un
. blankfein writes "there is more than a trillion dollars of cash sitting on balance sheets of u.s. non-financial companies. certain will increase their capital expenditures currently at anemic levels, contributing to a virtuous cycle of jobs and growth." minimizing increases in marginal rates that could stifle risk taking and robust growth. he also stresses the importance of restoring confidence in public finance by implementing spending cuts and revenue increases. in the meantime, dallas fed president richard fisher tells cnbc that the central bank can't do much more to shelter the economy. >> we need to completely reboot tax policy and spending policy. if we have temporary fixes to the fiscal cliff, just push out the envelope of indecision until we have a sense of true direction, and it's time for our politicians to get their act together. >> fisher says he does not view the fed as a safety net. that is certainly a change of perception, one that congress is going to have to figure out pretty quickly along with the rest of washington. >> that it is. there's been a number of interviews
, this is fascinating. the fiscal cliff issue is a reason for many markets to move in the u.s. it's also big reason in europe and as it overlays several months going back to june with dow jones industrial average, you can see that our market was impacted more by the election but both charts are highly correlated and it's the fact that we are talking potential solutions to our fiscal cliff. melissa lee, back to you. >> thank you very much, rick santelli. just a note here, we're waiting for intel to begin trading again. a delayed open because of news that ceo will be retiring in may. we're awaiting that opening trade. 9:45 eastern time is our latest indication. meantime, will we see a massive correction even if there is a fiscal cliff deal? that's what david shulman is saying. find out why the senior economist is making such a bearish call. brewing job creation. what the folks at sam adams are doing to get food and beverage entrepreneurs a lift. stay tuned. [ male announcer ] introducing the new dell xps 12. part of a whole new line of tablets from dell. it's changing the conversation. ♪ well, havi
. the obama administration saying that china's currency remains significantly undervalued, but the u.s. treasury department is now stopping short of labeling the world's second biggest economy a currency manipulator. the white house is expected now to send the congress a multi-billion-dollar request on the recovery from superstorm sandy. the storm caused an estimated $71 billion in damages in new york and new jersey, and some congressional aides saying the request for funding would likely be at least $11 billion. the move comes as canada gets close to its decision on whether to approve the transaction. the energy companies say discussions with the committee are still in progress, and of course they had to file approval because they have extensive operations in the u.s. gulf of mexico. >>> "the wall street journal" reporting that virtue is emerging as the frontrunner to buy knight capital. they would possibly sell off parts of that business. finally, we can't get away from the story of twinkies. the bakers union of hostess brands wants a bankruptcy judge to appoint a chapter 11 trustee
for chapter 11. different news to digest. sales in the u.s., ford, gm, doing well. japanese automaker selling to china not doing so well. foreign automaker selling into china doing well at bmw. >> i think the suzuki thing mirrors what's happening at ford. >> i had an eye on one of their models. >> which one? >> the one with the four wheels. >> i have a harley in my garage. >> i'm not kidding. >> which garage is it by the way? do you even know? >> one of them is flooded. are you happy with that? >> is there a side car at leas.? >> i have tattoos all of the way up you just don't see them. suzuki blinking, ford, blinking, gm starting to blink. there's anti-globalization going on that we have to notice. some people say that i can't hack it in these markets. toyota was good. bmw was downbeat in terms of future. it wouldn't be something if everyone recognized what alcoa recognized. maybe it's too hard to be global. maybe it's too hard. go, suzuki was broken by the yen. it's hard to do business when you have these currency wars going on. >> how about kimberly getting out of diapers in europe? there'
time in nearly a decade and the u.s. underperforming. any doubt now that rivals are stealing share? >> retailers like macy's finally quantifying the effect of hurricane sandy. walmart kicking off black friday earlier than ever. we start this morning with the markets looking to bounce back from yesterday's selloff and nearly 1313 drop in the dow. europe on wall street's radar after the ecb and bank of england kept key rates unchanged. draghi holding a press conference right now saying he sees economic rekafr ri remaining weak and reforms are crucial to boosting growth potential on top of greece passing an unpopular package of austerity measures on wednesday and necessary for greece to receive another round of international financial aid. china's ruling communist party congress con vealing today in a leadership change. so much to digest overseas, jim. what came out of the ecb is expected. came out of greece seems to be largely expected. but spain still resisting. a bailout. that's trouble. >> i know. every day the crucial -- that's the crucial link. you have to give them the good loa
at the ex-have a dax, up 5%. ftse up nearly 4% in the last week on top of pretty good gains for the u.s. markets as you know between 3% and 4%, as well. so no surprise perhaps today that we're a little bit weaker on the back of those gains. 8:2 just about decliners outpacing advancers. this is how it translates. ftse 100 down half a percent. xetra dax up a quarter. ibex down about half of 1%. a number of things going on in politics as ever. we had regional elections in spain. yields you can see slightly higher, but still well below 6%. now, these regional elections fairly important because we know catalonia has been pushing on on independence. now, it looks less likely we'll get that referendum, but not because people in catalonia are any less eager on a separatist movement. just that they didn't vote for the main guy who is proposing it. they voted for competitor party which is makes it slightly harder in the short term for them possibly to get a referendum going. so eases the pressure in the short term but means there is still a longer term problem there. catalonia is one of those reg
. china was down. they did have tremendously difficult comparisons. u.s. was also weaker. this was just not a good quarter. >> that's true. >> so ubs goes to neutral and trims estimates and cuts price target from 84 to 73. they say that deceleration is going into q-2. >> yum we're not that crazy about. chipotle. panera is a standout. this has been a terrific group. it lost its luster. entire quick serve contingent has become a place that people are worried about with the exception of highest value. panera. it's a decent stock. >> what's also surprising about what young came out with last month is they were talking about china. they weren't overly cautious about china. at the same time we've been getting better and better data points when it comes to china. economic data has been in fact turning. we haven't seen the stock market in china join and now we're not seeing it in yum. yum had once been the big multinational china play. if yum can't make it work, what other companies will we start to look at? will we look at nike or another multinational with a decent amount of growth from sales
that the u.s. doesn't go into a recession? >> well, first i want to say the metaphor fiscal cliff is probably the wrong one. you step off a cliff, that's your last step. for many politicians, the real metaphor is it's a slope. they gradually go into these tax increases and spending cuts. they feel they can turn around and walk back up the slope, retroactively reverse the changes. in that circumstance, in that scenario, it creates a lot of uncertainty for businesses and for taxpayers. what will our taxes be next year? how are we going to make some plans for our business or personal finances? it's that uncertainty that's going to, i think, have adverse effects for the economy. >> okay. that makes a lot of sense. michael jones, how do you want to invest here with all this? >> i think there are times when the market is really simple. don't fight the fed. you certainly don't want to fight the fed when they've got the ecb, the bank of japan, the people's bank of china, and virtually every other central bank on their side. you've had unprecedentedly aggressive monetary stimulus. we have open-ended c
'm going to start with you today because we see that stutter step opening in the u.s. stock market. some of that could be attributable, i guess, to the plunge in spanish ten-year yields when rumors got out that maybe spain was going to ask for a bailout from the ecb. while we obsess so much on the fiscal cliff, the markets are paying close attention to what's going on in europe, yes? >> oh, well, i don't disagree. nothing gets past you, bill. i think the fiscal cliff for lack of any tangible movement there is up and center. look at the chart bill is referring to. at one point, we were up eight basis points on the ten-year in spain. by the end of the session, down three. the following charts might put a better face on it. if to you open the chart up to about a month, you can see that rates for the most part were about a one-month high in spain. if you look at their safe harbor counterparts, the exact mirror image of lower rates. the rumor is, hey, if you build it, a bailout facility, they will come. spain may be on their way, but it's still only rumor at this point. >> steven, how much of
, there is some risk there and maybe something needs to be done. but we're lumping in u.s. treasury money funds, u.s. government agency money funds, muni money funds. are we going to say they're subject to credit loss also? we have to get more specific about these major policy changes rather than throwing a blanket over an entire industry. >> great point. we're going to leave it there. you're betting on whether or not we go over the fiscal cliff this year. what do you think? >> i'm worried. >> you're frworried. >> i don't see the leadership at this point in time i'm hoping to see from the white house. >> walt, great to have you on the program. really appreciate it. walter is the president and ceo of the charles schwab corporation. >>> meanwhile, the honeywell ceo was at that fiscal cliff meeting with president obama today. it just wrapped up. he joins us now for a first-on cnbc interview from the white house. david, good to have you on the program. thank you so much for joining us. >> thanks. good to be here. >> okay. so leading up to this meeting with the president, you were skeptiabou seeing a dea
see things that are happening not only in the u.s. but on a global basis. it would lead me to believe that the market could be up 10% or more next year. i would -- >> what are you seeing when you say you are looking around the world that makes you believe we'll go higher? >> i see several things. i see emerging markets have slurmd in the second half of the year. i think those are improving, specifically in china. i see the eurozone committed to economic stimulus through their monetary system in the ecb. i think that's very positive for that market. and in the u.s. here, i see employment getting better. i see clarity on the fiscal cliff next year and i see the housing market getting better around better and i think that's a positive. >> rick santelli, it wasn't just stocks rallying today. here in the u.s., europe had its best week of the year this week. the euro is at a three-week high. gold was very strong today. what's the market telling us right now? >> i think the market's telling us that there's a lot of bargain hunting and a lot of optimism towards europe. that made sense. i thin
, of course concerns about the fiscal cliff here in the u.s. also, expectations we'll see further monetary easing in japan. all bullish for gold. taking a quick look at what happened in the energy complex. a mixed day there. crude pulling back despite some very good economic news. the dollar strength at play there as well. all of this as the december options expired. ahead of tomorrow's inventory report, which is expected to show a build in crude inventory. natural gas rebounding from yesterday's decline, which was spurred by the forecast for a warm december. back to you. >> all right, mary. thank you very much. >> all right. we've got 52 minutes before the closing bell. the dow jones industrial average off of its lows, down 55 points. the nasdaq is lower by -- fractionally lower. >> and don't look now, but just as housing is showing signs of life, congress may be taking away the mortgage interest deduction. we're going to look at that coming up here. >>> plus, congressional cliff divers we call them. we're going to hear from a democratic lawmaker who says let's just do it. let's go off th
on the very, very decent and accelerating fundamentals of the u.s. economy. >> maybe, and that's just today, right, ron? >> been since last week. >> we were talking about the market really being so sensitive to any rhetoric out of washington. >> i'm not saying it's not hostage to headlines. we'll get intraday volatility. from the monday before thank giving until now, we have effectively wiped out the losses we saw post-election. >> rick, how do you see it? market complacency, too much angst, are we overthinking this? how do you read the market right now? >> i think that the low volume movements of the equity markets aren't really telling you any information. there's no way even in aggregate a market could decide what's going on in harry reid or john boehner's brain in anything is going on in begin with. if you look at treasuries overlaid on top of equities, until mr. boehner's comments, the treasuries have taken the big picture on all of this. they're not going anywhere fast. fiscal cliff is important, but there's a lot of issues for the next several years that are going to be important to
-mails the recipient a digital itunes code. gifts are currentsly just available to tens of millions of facebook's u.s. users, but will be able as gifts rolls out broadly. this bolsters facebook's retail business tapping into digital content and subscriptions which are the fastest online growing retail category. facebook won't comment on the business model but presumably facebook gets a cut and it does of course benefit when users were more engaged on the site. today facebook shares rallied on a pair of analyst upgrades. this partnership gives apple access to facebook's users securing its position as the leading music distributor as it faces new competition from the likes of microsoft's xbox music, google music and amazon's cloud player. now of course, if facebook can convince more customers to hand over their credit card information using that itunes as a lure, that's of course a good way to get them to spend more money on facebook gifts down the line. >> thank you so much, julia. >>> now the countdown is really on. no pressure. the workers are going back to the office. they're thinking they're going
cities but a warning we may head into a recession next year if the u.s. and europe don't solve their fiscal messes. right now the dow industrials a built of a breather down 21 points. >>> meanwhile, 34 days to the fiscal cliff. will a deal be done in time? today, president obama meets with small business leaders to make his case for the possibility of higher taxes ahead. our washington correspondent, john harwood, is here with the very latest. hi, john. >> reporter: hi, tyler. you know, everybody is staking out public positions and trying to drive public opinion their way. the president's been doing that all week. he is doing that with his meeting at 2:30 this afternoon with small business leaders from around the country. he is later going to travel to pennsylvania to make his case publicly, part of what he is saying is that if you adopt his plan on the extension of the bush tax cuts that is for the middle class and not for people at the top that almost every small business owner is going to get a tax cut as a result of that. and republicans are staking out their own position t
-fired power plants generating electricity in the u.s., and those plants produce 130 million tons of waste called coal ash. it contains concentrations of mercury, arsenic, lead, and other toxic materials. and as lesley stahl first reported in 2009, when coal ash is dumped into wet ponds--and there are more than 500 of those across the country-- the result can have an enormous health risk on the people living in nearby communities. >> we get about 48%, nearly half of the electricity in this country from coal. >> jim roewer is one of the top lobbyists for the power industry. >> coal is going to be around for a long time. >> and we really can't get rid of coal. >> we shouldn't get rid of coal. >> well, should or shouldn't, we can't, and coal makes waste. would you say that the industry has done a good job of disposing of the coal ash waste? >> we can do better. >> does that mean no? >> well, we had a kingston spill. >> that's kingston, tennessee, where, in december 2008, a giant retention pool of coal ash buckled under the weight of five decades of waste. >> all the power lines have been knoc
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